Israel Shifts Toward Hezbollah in “New Phase” of War
Israeli Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, speaking with IDF personnel in northern Israel
on 18 September (The Times of Israel)
Overview:
ISRAEL: Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced a “new phase” of the
Gaza war following Israeli cyber and military attacks in southern Lebanon. The
attacks are aimed at degrading Hezbollah capabilities and infrastructure.
Cyberattacks began on 17 September, overloading batteries in Hezbollah
communication devices – causing them to explode. Military attacks shortly
followed. Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah vows retaliation and labels the
actions as an act of war against Lebanon. Nasrallah emphasized that Hezbollah
would not cease its actions until Israeli aggression in Gaza stops.
Analysis:
Hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah are nearly certain to escalate due to
increased military activity along the Lebanese border. The IDF has diverted
assets from Gaza to northern Israel, including infantry, airborne, and armored
units. The IDF continues to launch coordinated strikes against Hezbollah targets
across the Lebanese border. Hezbollah has retaliated with artillery and drone
strikes against IDF positions in northern Israel.
US Federal Reserve Cuts Federal Interest Rates
US Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, during a press briefing
on 18 September (The Economist).
Overview:
UNITED STATES: On 18 September, the US Central Bank reduced interest rates
to 4.75-5.00 percent, a larger break than predicted. This aggressive action is
aimed at achieving a “soft landing” for the economy. The Fed originally raised
interest rates in 2022 to avoid a potential recession. Fed rates and related rates
are expected to remain in decline until the end of the year. The Feds’
announcement signals the first cut to interest rates in four years.
Analysis:
Borrowing rates tied closely to the Fed’s policies are likely to decrease due to
Fed rate cuts. Lower borrowing rates are likely to increase spending and
investments in the US’ domestic economy. Inflation rates are projected to
stabilize, whereas unemployment is expected to increase from 4.2 percent to
4.4 percent by December 2024.
“Storm Boris” Devastates Central Europe Causing Mass Flooding
Residents of Faenza, Italy walk through flooded streets on 19 September (BBC).
Overview:
EUROPE: Floods created by the massive rainfall occurring during Storm Boris
have devastated Central Europe. Germany, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Austria,
Hungary and Romania have been heavily affected by the flooding. Areas in
Northern Italy are being evacuated as of September 19th due to Storm Boris’s
approach.
Analysis:
European private industries are highly likely to be disrupted due to flooding and
infrastructure damage across Central Europe. Mass evacuations of impacted
areas across Central Europe will cause transit disruptions. The total economic
damage caused by Storm Boris are expected to exceed €1 billion EUR ($1.17
billion USD). The European Union has announced €10 billion EUR ($11.17 billion
USD) in aid to countries affected by Storm Boris.
US Military Completes its Withdrawal from Niger
US and Niger flags fly outside of barracks at Niger Air Base 201 in Agadez, Niger (AP).
Overview:
The US completed a full military withdrawal from Niger on 15
September. Niger’s ruling junta ordered the US to withdrawal its forces from the
country in April 2024. The junta came to power during a coup in October 2023;
the US does not recognize the junta as Niger’s government. The US previously
had 1,000 military personnel stationed in Niger to conduct training and antiterrorism operations in the region. Boko Haram, al-Qaeda, and varying ISIS
elements actively maintain a presence in Niger.
Analysis:
Terrorist activities in Niger are likely to increase due to the US’ withdrawal from
the country. Niger’s military capabilities will likely be diminished without US
training and support. It is highly likely that Russia will fill the security void left
by the US withdrawal due to increased Russian military presence in Niger.
Iranian Hackers Attempted to Send Hacked Trump Campaign
Materials to Biden-Harris Staffers
Presidents Donald Trump and Joseph Biden (CBS)
Overview:
The FBI announced on 18 September that Iranian hackers
implicated in the Trump Campaign hacking sent unsolicited emails to BidenHarris staffers. The Iranians were attempting to interfere in the 2024 US
Presidential Election according to the FBI. There has been no evidence that the
staffers interacted or responded with the emails sent by the Iranian cyber
group.
Analysis:
Foreign election interference is likely to increase due to heightened
international tensions and the nearness of the election. The FBI recently
revealed a Russian election interference campaign on 4 September. Hostilities
with Iranian-proxies across the Middle East continue to increase causing further
tensions between the US and Iran.
Russia Expels British Diplomats Accused of “Espionage”
British Embassy in Moscow, Russia (Wall Street Journal).
Overview:
RUSSIA: Russia accused six British diplomats working in Moscow of espionage
resulting in their expulsion on 13 September. The British government denies
these claims, with the UK Foreign Office saying they were “completely
baseless.”
Analysis:
Diplomatic hostilities are highly likely to remain as the United Kingdom
dismissed the Russian defense attaché as well as removed diplomatic status
from several Russian properties. On 18 September, the British government
summoned the Russian ambassador to the Foreign Office to discuss the issue. We assess with medium confidence that standards of conduct between these
states will deteriorate before being cordial again.
References
Source 1: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/walkie-talkie-blasts-lebanon-japan-icom-israel-new-phase-warhezbollah-rcna171773 (High)
Source 2: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/gallant-says-israels-focus-has-moved-to-northern-front-asnew-phase-of-war-begins/ (High)
Source 3: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cwyl9048gx8t (High)
Source 4: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/09/18/why-the-federal-reserve-has-gambled-ona-big-interest-rate-cut (High)
Source 5: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz04md0zdrno (High)
Source 6: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c30ln80z4deo (High)
Source 7: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italys-emilia-romagna-region-hit-by-new-devastating-floods-2024-
09-19/ (High)
Source 8: https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/09/18/deadly-floods-in-europe-how-much-is-it-going-to-cost
(High)
Source 9: https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/us-military-says-it-completes-niger-withdrawal-2024-09-16/ (High)
Source 10: https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3552918/ (High)
Source 10: https://apnews.com/article/niger-us-troops-withdrawal-65ee87e2185ef3fe1f2119dad767f57c# (High)
Source 11: https://apnews.com/article/iran-fbi-election-interference-dni-ae96f57f438772dac08e076be7aa4904
(High)
Source 12: https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/18/politics/iranian-hackers-trump-biden-campaigns/index.html (High)
Source 13: https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/russia-war-latest-news-ukraine-drng0d7ss (High)
Source 14: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c7858qqzyv8t (High)